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Illustration of satellites operating in Earth’s orbit. Image: Getty
“The current trajectory adjustment rate is growing exponentially. Every six months, this number doubles. The exponential increase will lead to a very rapid escalation,” said Hugh Lewis, a space debris expert at the University of Southampton.
If this trend continues, by 2028, Starlink satellites will need to perform nearly one million trajectory adjustments in just six months to reduce collision risks in orbit. Lewis also believes that the increase is unlikely to slow down anytime soon. So far, SpaceX has deployed approximately one-third of its planned network of 12,000 first-generation satellites, launching more than 800 satellites annually and expecting to continue at a steady pace in the near future.
However, the 12,000 satellites are just the beginning. FCC has approved part of the plan for the second-generation Starlink network, which could include up to 30,000 satellites. Other satellite networks worldwide, such as Amazon’s Project Kuiper and China’s Guowang, are also competing for positions in orbit.
Currently, there are around 10,500 satellites orbiting the Earth, of which 8,100 are operational, according to the European Space Agency (ESA). However, over 1.7 million satellites have been registered with the International Telecommunication Union, as reported by Joanne Wheeler, a satellite regulation expert at Alden Legal and President of the Satellite Finance Network in the UK. While not all of these plans may come to fruition, the vast number raises concerns among experts like Lewis about maintaining order in orbit.
New satellites are not the sole reason for the increasing number of trajectory adjustments to avoid collisions. The amount of space debris, including non-operational spacecraft, spent rocket stages, and other objects, continues to grow, making it increasingly challenging for operators to ensure the safety of their space vehicles.