As stated by NASA scientists, within the next three decades, humanity is likely to face an issue: the Sun is projected to undergo significant weakening. Consequently, the solar energy supplied to Earth will substantially diminish, potentially resulting in a new Ice Age.
The scientists assert this based on their study of the Sun, which revealed that its activity follows a cyclic pattern. Specifically, this solar cycle, also known as the solar activity cycle, has an average duration of 11 years.
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According to the predictions of researchers, by the year 2050, Earth may once again enter a minor ice age.
(Image: Baidu)
The solar cycle is a term denoting the periodic change in the number of sunspots on its surface. This cycle encompasses periods of solar minimum and solar maximum. Solar minimum signifies the phase with the fewest sunspots, while solar maximum represents the phase with the highest solar activity, characterized by numerous sunspots.
Typically, a solar cycle extends from one solar minimum to the next. Experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) collaborated to establish the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel (SCPP). According to the SCPP, the solar minimum occurred in December 2019, marking the commencement of a new solar cycle—Solar Cycle 25. This cycle is anticipated to persist from 2019 to 2030.
During Solar Cycle 25, the Sun is expected to reach its maximum activity around July 2025. The solar maximum phase often brings an increase in the number of sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections. Sunspots serve as indicators of eruptions and events that release light, matter, and energy into space.
Coronal mass ejections can disrupt radio communication systems, damage satellites, and affect Earth’s power grids. Furthermore, during the solar maximum phase, solar activity can impact electrical grids, aviation, rockets, GPS systems, satellites, and astronauts in space.
More recently, a new solar study conducted by the University of California researchers provided predictions about the upcoming solar minimum, expected around the year 2050. They also forecasted a unique period during this time when the Sun will become “extremely cold.”
The Risk of a Minor Ice Age in 2050
According to the study from California University experts, by 2050, the Sun will enter an extended “Grand Solar Minimum” period, also known as the Maunder Minimum. During this prolonged period of reduced solar activity, sunspots on the Sun will become exceedingly rare. This term was introduced by American astronomer John A. Eddy in a 1976 Science journal publication.
Previously, the extended grand solar minimum cycle was first documented by Gustav Spörer, a German astronomer, in 1887 and 1889. This work was passed on to the Royal Astronomical Society in London and expanded upon by astronomers Edward Walter Maunder (1851–1928) and his wife Annie Russell Maunder (1868–1947).
This extended grand solar minimum cycle has occurred in the context of the Little Ice Age. During this period, the temperatures in Europe and North America were recorded to be significantly below average. The correlation between the low number of sunspots and cold winters in England during the years 1683-1684, 1694-1695, and 1708-1709 has been analyzed based on meteorological data from England.
Additionally, another explanation has been put forth by observations from NASA’s Climate and Solar Radiation Experiment, indicating that ultraviolet light output varies more during the solar cycle. The research also reveals that reduced solar energy activity leads to colder winters in certain regions in southern Europe, Canada, northern Asia, and the United States.
During the extended grand solar minimum cycle in the 17th century, the Thames River in England froze over due to unusual low temperatures. The Baltic Sea even exhibited a layer of exceptionally rare ice, and the thickness of the ice reached unimaginable levels. During this time, the Swedish army marched across the frozen Baltic Sea to invade Denmark.
Regarding this phenomenon, American physicist Dan Lubin conducted specialized research on the extended grand solar minimum cycle. Through his study, he concluded that the cooling of specific regions on Earth is closely linked to the extended grand solar minimum cycle. Dan Lubin suggests that by 2050, Earth will experience a more severe minor ice age than what was seen in the 17th century.
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Once the Sun enters this cycle, not only will ultraviolet rays significantly weaken, but its overall brightness will also decrease. Consequently, the solar energy received by Earth will greatly diminish, leading to a series of freezing regions. And when the Sun enters the solar maximum phase, ultraviolet radiation and the intensity of light reaching Earth will increase significantly.
The weakened solar energy will thin the ozone layer in the stratosphere of Earth. The atmospheric flow beneath it will change and cause impacts on weather and the environment. However, experts also note that the effects of the extended grand solar minimum cycle are not uniform. As a result, Europe and North America will become extremely cold, while the southern part of Greenland will become warmer.
Regarding the impacts of this cycle, some have raised questions about whether it could have a positive effect on global warming. Researchers have provided an answer; while the minor ice age cannot completely halt climate change, the prolonged grand solar minimum cycle will slow down the process of global warming. Furthermore, even though temperatures in certain parts of the Earth may drop to sub-zero levels during the extended grand solar minimum cycle, the overarching trend remains global warming.