McKinney hasn’t allowed a single yard from the safety position this year and has brought in two interceptions.
One of the most telling stats for coverage defenders at the NFL level is yards allowed per coverage snap played. Thanks to NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats’ data, built off of player tracking data, now allows us to sift through that information on a positional level, meaning being able to split players up by whether they lined up as an outside cornerback, slot cornerback or safety on a given play.
According to NFL Pro, the Green Bay Packers’ Xavier McKinney has played 65 snaps at a safety depth this season. Over those snaps, he hasn’t allowed a single yard as the nearest defender on a completed pass. He also has two interceptions from that spot, making him the only multi-interception safety in the league through two weeks.
So how much value should we put on interceptions? Well, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), a passing stat that is more correlated to predicting winners and losers than passer rating or any volume stats, treats an interception as a loss of 45 yards for an offense. If we apply that same value to McKinney’s season, he’s allowed equal to -90 adjusted yards over his 65 snaps at safety this year.
How good is that? I’m glad you asked. In total, qualifiers (min. 20 snaps at safety) for the 2024 season have played 3,244 snaps at safety and have allowed 1,612 yards and seven touchdowns to 13 interceptions. If we were to measure the adjusted net yards allowed per snap for the position, league-wide, it would come around to 0.36 yards per play.
From that perspective, McKinney should have allowed a ballpark number of 23 yards in coverage over 65 snaps, if he were a league-average starter. That means his -90 yards have already provided the Packers with about 113 yards of value for this season.
How does that rank among McKinney’s peers in the league? First, by a wide margin. Only two other safeties, the Detroit Lions’ Kerby Joseph and the New Orleans Saints’ Jordan Howden have even added half of the value that McKinney has brought to the Packers through two weeks.
Coverage Value Added (Safeties)
It’s safe to say that the Packers’ big free-agency signing has been paying off so far. For added perspective, Green Bay second-round rookie Javon Bullard has played 54 coverage snaps and has allowed 16 yards, no touchdowns and hasn’t recorded an interception. Among the 69 qualifying safeties this year, Bullard ranks 37th. The worst safety in coverage this year is San Francisco 49ers second-year defensive back Ji’Ayir Brown, who has allowed 110 yards and a touchdown in 52 snaps, roughly 111 adjusted yards of value more the league-average safety.
Using the same metric, adjusted for position played, cornerback Eric Stokes ranks 18th, Carrington Valentine ranks 36th and Jaire Alexander ranks 53rd among the 72 qualifying outside cornerbacks in 2024. In the slot, Keisean Nixon is 35th out of 40 qualifying defensive backs in the middle of the field.
For the most part, the Packers’ defensive back unit has played average to below average this year, but McKinney’s effort is outstanding.