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Here’s how the Buffalo Bills can better use TE Dalton Kincaid

Posted on October 12, 2024 - 2:08 pm by

Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid entered the 2024 season as a highly anticipated weapon for an offense in need of one. Kincaid, you may recall, was drafted in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft to be a dynamic pass-catching tight end.

The hope was that Kincaid’s receiving ability, combined with quarterback Josh Allen’s arm talent, would create a matchup nightmare for defenses. Throughout his young career, Kincaid has shown flashes of brilliance, but after an underwhelming start to the 2024 season, it’s clear he isn’t being used to his full potential.

Kincaid’s usage, both in volume and positioning, suggests there is room for improvement. Read on as I break down his current production and usage, identifies areas of improvement, and how the Bills could potentially utilize Kincaid’s talents to better help the offense as the season progresses.



Dalton Kincaid is currently miscast with Buffalo Bills

Coming out of college, Kincaid was hailed as a prototypical pass-catching tight end. As mentioned in a 2023 pre-draft analysis, “the 6’4”, 246-pound TE acts more like a receiver and is a more dynamic athlete than a typical TE. His ball skills are superb and his length provides him a great advantage in 50/50 balls. He has surprisingly nimble feet for a big man.”

The Bills didn’t draft Kincaid to be a blocker but rather to be a mismatch in the passing game, or dare I say a number-one option in the passing game.



However, Kincaid’s current usage doesn’t fully capitalize on these strengths. The Bills have embraced an “everybody eats” mantra on offense, which spreads the ball around in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s system. General manager Brandon Beane also drafted Kincaid with the idea of him becoming a superior talent, and someone who could be a difference-maker in key moments.

Right now, Kincaid’s being used more as a safety valve than as a true offensive weapon. The Bills need to adjust their approach to maximize Kincaid’s unique skill set.

Dalton Kincaid’s current production and usage

Through five games this season, Kincaid has caught 15 of 24 targets — leading the Bills in targets per game (4.5), and accumulating 166 receiving yards, one touchdown, and accounting for seven first downs. He’s also made the most of his opportunities after the catch, with 116 of his 166 total yards (69.8%) coming after contact. While these numbers are encouraging, it’s clear that Kincaid has the potential to do much more.



When digging deeper into Kincaid’s usage, some concerning trends emerge. Per Player Profiler, Kincaid has commanded 18.9% of the Bills’ total target share, which is decent but could be higher considering Buffalo has no number-one wide reciever to feed anymore.

Kincaid has played 62.8% of the offensive snaps, which seems super low to me and ranks 25th among NFL tight ends. Frankly, this is just unacceptable. His 102 routes run (20.4 per game) ranks just 20th among his NFL peers.

For comparison, Travis Kelce, the gold standard for pass-catching tight ends, has already run 139 routes, averaging 27.8 per game. Furthermore, George Kittle has 113 routes run (28.3 per game) in one less week than Kincaid, and rookie tight end Brock Bowers has run 116 routes (23.2 per game). The gap between Kincaid and the league’s elite, even a premier rookie tight end, suggests that Buffalo needs to scheme more opportunities for him.



Kincaid’s 74 snaps out of the slot (41.3%) highlight another area where the Bills can tap into his potential. He was highly effective out of the slot at Utah, and the Bills could help in that area especially while wide receiver Kahlil Shakir is hurt. Kincaid did see an increase in snaps in Week 5 when Shakir was out.

Challenges and areas for improvement

Several factors are limiting Kincaid’s overall production. First, the Bills’ emphasis on the run game has reduced his opportunities to impact the passing game. Buffalo has used Kincaid as a blocker more often than expected. While he’s shown some improvement in this area, blocking is not his strength and likely never will be his bread and butter.

Kincaid’s route participation percentage (routes run per team pass play) is at 76.1% (ranked 14th). As noted in my 2023 pre-draft analysis, Kincaid was known for his pass-catching prowess, not his ability to block.



His 1.88 yards of target separation rank 19th among tight ends, which isn’t a great place to be. We know Kincaid has the ability and skill set to create separation, but this number doesn’t reflect that. It could be a result of the types of routes he’s running, like shorter and quicker pass concepts where he’s in closer proximity to defenders. Kincaid is also seeing an average cushion of 4.12 yards (18th), which means defenders are waiting to pounce on his underneath routes.

Kincaid’s target quality rating of 4.09 (ranked 21st) further highlights a critical issue: the quality of targets he’s receiving remains below average. Perhaps this is due to a lack of deep passing threats from the wide receivers, allowing defenses to key in on shorter throws to Kincaid.

Another problem is Kincaid isn’t receiving accurate targets. His target accuracy rating is 6.0, which ranks 28th — and that’s bad. According to Player Profiler, this number grades the accuracy of each throw on a scale of one to 10. One representing the least accurate pass, and 10 representing the most accurate pass. NFL receivers with accuracy ratings above 8.0 are afforded highly accurate targets, and those below 7.0 are relatively inaccurate. Despite this, he remains productive, as evidenced by his 96.9 QB rating per target and his +6.2 EPA (expected points added).



How the Bills can better-utilize Kincaid

Getting Dalton Kincaid better-involved on offense is essentially simple in concept.

Increase Kincaid’s reps in the slot: Kincaid thrived in the slot in college, and the Bills need to utilize him there more than they do at present. His 74 slot snaps (41.3%) are too few, even though he did see an increase in slot snaps in Week 5 with Kahlil Shakir out. Lining him up or motioning him in to get pair him against linebackers or safeties in the slot creates favorable matchups that the Bills can exploit. Target Kincaid downfield: Kincaid’s average depth of target (ADOT) saw an uptick in Week 5 and pushed him to 7.8 yards ADOT — which ranks him seventh among NFL tight ends. That’s much better than the abysmal 4.9 ADOT he had in Weeks 1-4. In college, Kincaid was deadly on seam routes and contested catches down the sideline. The Bills should increase or maintain Kincaid’s Week 5 usage in the intermediate to deep routes, where his size, athleticism, and ball skills give him an edge over defenders. Increase Kincaid’s snap share and routes run: It’s hard to believe that Kincaid only has a 62.8% snap share to this point of the season, which ranks 25th among tight ends. It’s even more baffling that Kincaid ranks 20th in routes run among tight ends at 102 total routes run (20.4 per game). This simply isn’t enough for a player who was drafted in the first round to be a major factor in the offense. The Bills need more designed plays for Kincaid. Move Kincaid away from blocking assignments: Kincaid got blown up on two blocking assignments against the Houston Texans. In my opinion, blocking isn’t his strong suit, and the Bills shouldn’t limit his development as a receiver to make him an all-around tight end. His route participation percentage (routes run per team pass play) is at 76.1% (ranked 14th). This tells me Kincaid is being used to block instead of running a route on passing plays a little too much for my liking.



5. Treat Kincaid like a WR1: Feed Kincaid more targets. His team-leading 24 targets is respectable but that’s still only 4.5 targets per game — and that number’s putrid to me. Kincaid does have an 18.9% target share, which isn’t terrible, but part of the equation is just passing the ball more often. His 96.9 QB rating per target shows he’s a solid option for Josh Allen to target. This number dipped a bit after a bad game by Allen in Week 5. In Weeks 1-4 Kincaid’s QB rating per target was 111.3, which was among the highest in the NFL.

There is no “number-one” receiving option for the Bills right now, but that’s because they aren’t treating anybody like one. Kincaid is the man for the job, so Joe Brady needs to start treating him like he can take over a game on offense. Kincaid’s targets per route run increased in Week 5, which is a step in the right direction. Let’s see if that continues at around a 25% clip.



In summary

Dalton Kincaid’s 2024 season has shown promise, but it’s clear the Buffalo Bills are under-utilizing their talented young tight end. With 166 receiving yards, 116 of which have come after the catch, Kincaid has already demonstrated his play-making ability.

However, his current role as a safety valve and just another guy in the “everybody eats” scheme doesn’t tap into his full potential. Buffalo needs to unleash Kincaid as the matchup nightmare they envisioned him being when he was drafted

Furthermore, Josh Allen needs someone to step up as his number-one option. The Kincaid train is already at the station, all they need to do is board it.