Despite how disheartening the end of the season was for the Dallas Cowboys, there is still reason to be optimistic about the team moving forward. Dak Prescott has proven he can lead a winning team, Tony Pollard likely isn’t leaving, Micah Parsons and the defensive core look elite and the team just needs to get over the playoff hump.
All that’s required for the Cowboys to really have their best chance to make the leap in the 2023 season is for the 2023 offseason to go smoothly. Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones simply need to be smart with the moves they make.
Naturally, they’re not going to do that. The mistakes will happen and the finger-pointing cycle of the past 26 years will continue.
Call it the cynicism of Cowboys fandom, malcontent birthed in firing Kellen Moore while handing the reins to Mike McCarthy, or just an overall lack of faith, but there’s a sinking sense of inevitability that things are going to poorly for Dallas this offseason. Specifically, it feels like at least three mistakes are definitely going to be made heading into 2023, no matter what.
Cowboys: 3 mistakes the team is destined to make this offseason
3. The Cowboys are definitely going to keep Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott should not be on the Dallas Cowboys roster when Week 1 arrives. That’s a tough pill to swallow, without question, but it’s the truth of the matter. The explosive and highly effective runner is no longer the player wearing No. 21 with a star on his helmet, though.
Elliott averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season. But it’s actually worse than, that. Over the final six games of the year, he was only getting 3.28 yards per tote. That’s abysmal. And while some would like to blame injuries, the fact of the matter is that the veteran has been getting banged up consistently for the past couple of years. It’s another detraction, not a valid excuse.
The Cowboys could save $10.9 million by cutting or trading Elliott after June 1, which would be preferable, but could also save $4.86 million if he were let go before June 1, per Over the Cap. For a player who is just simply not producing at the level he once was and almost surely isn’t going to turn that around, that would be the most sensible option.
Yet, with the loyalty that the Jones family has shown Zeke, it’s all too easy to see a restructured contract to hang onto him or, in the worst-case scenario, just moving forward with this current deal. It’s not smart, but the fact that it doesn’t seem out of character for this front office is the issue.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that all indications are that the Cowboys are going to hold onto Tony Pollard for at least the 2023 season by way of the franchise tag. But if he’s still conceding too much work to a no-longer-effective Zeke, then the shimmer of that silver lining starts to fade pretty quickly.
2. The Cowboys are definitely not cutting Tyron Smith
Another decision that would undoubtedly be tough to make but should be made is regarding the future of longtime left tackle Tyron Smith.
Since he was a first-round pick by the Cowboys out of USC, Smith has been an elite player. When he’s on the field, there are few offensive tackles in the league who are better than him. Staying on the field, however, has been the primary issue for Smith in recent years.
Over the past three seasons, Smith has missed 35 of a possible 53 games due to various injuries that have plagued him. Upon his return to action, he’s always continued to be a phenomenal player, but availability matters, particularly when it’s considering an offensive lineman and a high-priced one at that.
Cutting or trading Smith could save the Cowboys either $9.595 million (pre-June 1) or $13.6 million in cap space, per Over the Cap. Given that they drafted Tyler Smith, who performed even better than expected as a rookie, in the first round last year and also have Terence Steele on the roster, that move would make sense.
Then you consider that Steele suffered a torn ACL in December. Then comes the loyalty factor again. And then it starts to come into view that Dallas could very easily justify hanging onto Tyron Smith this offseason in order to fill the time until Steele comes back. At this point in his career with his health and price tag (even with a restructure), though, that just doesn’t make sense for long-term success.
Yet, it feels like what will happen when it comes to this organization.
1. The Cowboys will definitely overcompensate for trading Amari Cooper
If there’s a bright spot about the 2023 offseason thus far, it’s that Stephen Jones finally appeared to admit that last offseason’s Amari Cooper trade was a flat-out mistake. Not only did the team, quite simply, miscalculate the wide receiver market and how much they were paying Cooper in relation to that, but they then didn’t do adequate work thereafter to replace him.
Unfortunately, it feels like that admission is a precursor to doing something ill-advised to essentially try and make up for the shortcomings.
One lesson that has been taught time and again in the NFL is that chasing past mistakes is not a path that any franchise should venture down. However, in this instance, the notion of the Jones family making a splash trade for an aging DeAndre Hopkins or overpaying for a player like Brandin Cooks or drafting a player like Jalin Hyatt a round earlier than they should just feels all too likely.
There’s no point in predicting how it will happen, but it certainly is in the cards. The Cowboys are going to do something splashy at wide receiver this offseason when, though they need help at the position, a blockbuster-type splash move isn’t the way to go about doing that.
If there’s a blockbuster move, it should be to get someone like Jalen Ramsey or to help the secondary, not to go all-in on a star wide receiver when the team just traded one last offseason. Frankly, if Dallas exits the offseason without trying overcompensating for the Cooper trade, that would be more shocking than the alternative.