In a midseason prediction post at ESPN, former NFL safety Matt Bowen predicted Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney will go on to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2024.
McKinney is currently tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions entering Week 10. The former Giant will have eight more game opportunities to add to his total after the Packers’ bye in Week 10, including two games against rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and a showdown with Geno Smith, who is currently tied for the NFL lead with 10 interceptions thrown.
From Bowen: “McKinney has been a difference-maker for Green Bay, using his range and ball skills to grab six interceptions, which is tied with Detroit’s Kerby Joseph for the most in the league. And in Jeff Hafley’s defensive system, McKinney will have more opportunities to make game-changing plays for a team that should make the playoffs. The Packers hit a home run when they signed McKinney this past offseason, upgrading their safety group.”
McKinney was the NFC’s Defensive Player of the Month for October, and he had an interception in all four games in September.
At BetMGM, McKinney is +2000 and currently tied for the seventh best odds to win AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year, so he still has work to do when it comes to winning over betting markets.
McKinney intercepted a pass in six of Green Bay’s first eight games, and he also recovered a fumble. McKinney is tied with Lions safety Kerby Joseph at six interceptions, but McKinney holds the total takeaway lead with seven.
The current betting leader for the award is T.J. Watt, who has 6.5 sacks, a league-leading four forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in eight games. Others ahead of McKinney include Will Anderson Jr., who has an NFL-high 11 tackles for loss, Dexter Lawrence, who leads all defensive tackles with 9.0 sacks, and Trey Hendrickson, who has an NFL-high 11.0 sacks and 22 quarterback hits.
Odds and past results are working against McKinney. Since 2014, a pass-rusher has won the award nine times in 10 seasons. The only defensive back to win was cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who had six interceptions, a league-high 20 pass breakups and a pair of interception returns for touchdowns for the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense in 2019.
Interceptions won’t be enough for McKinney. Fourteen times since 2010, a player has intercepted eight or more passes. None of them won NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Gilmore’s season suggests the Packers will need to become a truly dominant defense with McKinney leading the way over the second half of the season for the Packers safety to have a chance at a top NFL honor. It’s possible he’ll need a couple of defensive touchdowns — or a signature moment in a big game down the stretch — to have a shot.
Betting market leaders to win AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year (as of 11/7)
T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers: -140
Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs: +700
Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans: +1100
Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants: +1100
Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals: +1200
Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers: +1500
Xavier McKinney, Green Bay Packers: +2000
Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos: +2000
Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers: +2500
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