On the other side of the spectrum are the deals the Cowboys took a wait-and-see approach they later came to regret. Dak Prescott, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dez Bryant all would have commanded less if only Dallas had locked them up earlier.
Sometimes taking a wait-and-see approach is good business. Other times it’s just delaying the inevitable and possibly even making things worse. In the case of cornerback Trevon Diggs, a case can be made it’s the latter.
The one thing that’s constant in the NFL is the ever-growing market rate to re-sign players. In years that don’t involve global pandemics, the trickle-down is in full effect. Revenues grow so the salary cap grows; the cap grows so player salaries grow. A player who sets the market today is a player who’s a bargain tomorrow.
Once upon a time, Dak Prescott had a top-two salary at the quarterback position. Two years later, he’s down to seventh in average annual salary with the likelihood to drop even further in coming weeks.
It stands to reason the sooner a team can ink a deal, the better. Provided, of course, the player performs up to expectations.
The contracts for Smith, Collins, and Elliott look bad today, because the Cowboys misevaluated either their play, their longevity, or both. If the players would have continued to play at the level they were at the time of signing, their respective contracts wouldn’t be cautionary tales.
Diggs will be a free agent following the 2023 season so Dallas is under no obligation to extend him now if they don’t want to. But looking closer at the situation, this could be another example of the wait-and-see approach coming back to bite the Cowboys.
Diggs is going to command a top-five salary, if not reset the market entirely, when he signs his next contract. That could happen this offseason or that could happen next offseason.
Based on historical evidence and the ever-growing nature of the salary cap and accounting for gambling revenue, a top-of-the-market deal this off-season will likely be far less than a top-of-the-market deal next off-season.
This poses the question, what would it take for Diggs to hurt his current value?
2022 was a relatively down season for Diggs. After earning All-Pro honors by posting 21 total pass deflections and 11 interceptions in 2021, Diggs came up with 14 pass deflections in 2022, converting just 3 into interceptions. Quarterback’s completion percentage throwing against him increased as did their passer rating when targeted.
Despite the statistical drop, Diggs did nothing to sour his market and remains a virtual lock for a mammoth contract extension. If he all he does is repeat his 2022 season, he’s still likely to get a top-of-the-market contract in 2023. If he repeats his 2021 season, all bets are off how high his figure will be.
What stabilizes his value are his seemingly generational ball skills. “Generational” is a word thrown around far too often but in Diggs’ case, it may actually be deserved. The last time a player exceeded his 11 interceptions in a single season was Lester Hayes in 1980.
Diggs’ ability to track and win balls is unparalleled in the NFL today and no statistical drop will change that. It should be no surprise, that despite playing one more game in 2022, Diggs was targeted 18 fewer times and yielded 234 fewer yards (per PFR). Even with his loose, yet in-phase, style of play, teams will continue to avoid Diggs for fear of a game-changing turnover. Unless a permanent injury befalls him, his value is unlikely to drop after the 2023 season.
Diggs isn’t the most disciplined coverage player, nor is he an eager tackler. But giving up the occasional big play and avoiding a few tackles hasn’t hurt his stock yet and it’s unlikely they will hurt his value after another season.
Unless the Cowboys are planning to let Diggs walk, it makes little sense for them to put off a new deal. Diggs’ value is only going up and it’s likely nothing that could happen in 2023 will change that.
Go ahead, Dallas, set the market with Diggs’ extension right now because his price only stands to increase. After all, a deal struck today, will probably look like a bargain tomorrow.