It hasn’t been the cleanest start of the season for Jordan Love. It’s to consider that it’s still a small sample size and that he played one of his two games with a knee less than 100%, but the fact is that Love is 19th in EPA/play, 28th in success rate, and 30th in completion percentage over expectation through the first month of the season among 33 qualifying quarterbacks.
It’s also true that Love is down in big-time throw rate (3.2 from 5.6 in 2023) and up in turnover-worthy play rate (5.1 from 2.6 in 2023).
Lions fall to Tampa, 20-16, but one change will make Detroit the best team in the NFL!Lions fall to Tampa, 20-16, but one change will make Detroit the best team in the NFL!
Curiously enough, though, the Green Bay Packers have scored 29 points in each game Love was on the field. Better than that, the franchise quarterback has a big chance at improving over the next few weeks.
Until their bye in week 10, the Packers play only one defense that is in the top half of the league in defensive EPA/play — and it barely does, since the Houston Texans are 15th. Other than that, Green Bay plays the Los Angeles Rams (31st), Arizona Cardinals (30th), Jacksonville Jaguars (29th), and Detroit Lions (22nd).
Challenge in LA
The first of these matchups is an intriguing one. The Rams are with a new defensive coordinator, since Chris Shula replaced Raheem Morris (the new Atlanta Falcons head coach). The coaching change and Aaron Donald’s retirement have had the impact you would expect, and the unit hasn’t been any good.
Even though the Rams’ defense leads the NFL in pressure rate, the rest of the unit has performed at a below average to bad level, leading to rough numbers.
Los Angeles’ defense is 31st in EPA/play, 31st in DVOA, 31st in dropback EPA, 30th in success rate, and 29th in rush EPA. Basically any metric you choose, and the Rams will be in or close to the bottom 5.
So far this season, the Rams haven’t allowed fewer than 24 points in a game — which included giving up 41 points to the Cardinals in week 2.
Head coach Sean McVay thinks communication and technique in the back end have been the most significant issues.
“There’s been some issues (with communication), yes,” McVay said. “And playing with the techniques to avoid the penalties that have extended drives that are pretty egregious that we just can’t do. You’re giving people an opportunity. We’re getting home with the rush and then you see those yellow flags on the back end and it’s all for nothing.”
For the Packers offense, it’s important to be more consistent. Even though the team leads the league in explosive plays, the down-to-down efficiency needs to get better — and the Rams offer a favorable matchup for Jordan Love to make it happen on Sunday.