Matt Warren is Associate Director of NFL coverage for SB Nation and previously covered the Buffalo Bills for Buffalo Rumblings for more than a decade. If it has to do with math, he has covered it, from NFL playoff standings to salary cap analysis. He does weekly community questions to stay involved with the commenters on the site.
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The NFL’s betting markets have had Lamar Jackson in the lead for MVP betting recently and before that, Patrick Mahomes started the year ahead of everyone. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was always in the conversation, but never leading. That is until this week, when Allen has become the new betting favorite for NFL MVP.
Per Fanduel, Allen has moved into the lead at +270 while Jackson has slipped to +370 and Mahomes +500.
What are the factors voters use to determine NFL MVP?
Over the past decade or so, the NFL MVP has been the best quarterback on a team with one of the best records in the league. The more touchdowns you score, the better your chances and the more turnover you have, the worst your chances.
Who are the betting favorites in the NFL MVP race?
Lamar Jackson slipped out of first in the MVP betting odds because the Baltimore Ravens lost again this week, knocking them to 5-3. They’re a game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in their own division and are sixth in the AFC right now.
For Patrick Mahomes, his team may be undefeated but he’s not playing well this year. Mahomes is tied for third in the NFL with nine turnovers behind only Gardner Minshew and Will Levis. He’s also first in the NFL with nine interceptions on the year. Couple that with him scoring only nine touchdowns, and he’s far off the pace set by the league’s leaders.
Josh Allen leads the league in touchdown to turnover ratio, at +14. Despite a high percentage of turnover-worthy plays, Allen has been very careful with the ball on paper. He has one interception and two lost fumbles, so only three turnovers on the season. The knock against Allen was always the turnovers, so if he shows votes in the Associated Press that he has that under control, they are likely to reward him with more MVP votes than ever before.
Couple Allen’s performance with the Bills winning a bunch of games, and he is the clear frontrunner. At 6-2, the Bills are going to clinch the AFC East early and be in contention for one of the top seeds in the AFC as a result.
Over in the NFC, the top team is the Detroit Lions and Jared Goff is certainly in the MVP conversation. He has 14 total touchdowns and four interceptions to be +10 in touchdowns to turnovers and his offense has been incredibly efficient. His lack of flash and high-visibility plays is working against him, but if he can remain consistently great throughout the season, he will certainly have a case.
Elsewhere in the NFC, despite a fast start the Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold have fallen off while the San Francisco 49ers are 4-4 and currently 10th in the conference, knocking down Brock Purdy’s chances. It would be tough to see rookie Jayden Daniels stay consistent enough to win MVP after his incendiary start, and the Philadelphia Eagles have been so Jekyll and Hyde this year behind Jalen Hurts.
For the record, despite calls for other positions to be in play, the top 14 players in MVP odds are quarterbacks before getting to Derrick Hery, who is on pace for 2000 yards on the ground. Pass rusher T.J. Watt is +15,000 and 23rd in the betting odds.
How is the NFL MVP voted on?
At the end of the regular season, 50 members of the media — mostly the AP’s beat reporters with other respected NFL observers — are polled by the Associated Press in a rank-choice voting method. They vote for the five best players in the NFL and votes are scored on a sliding scale on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis. (First-place vote gets 10 points, second-place vote gets 5 points and so on.)
Who won the 2023 NFL MVP?
In 2023, Jackson received 49 first-place votes, guaranteeing his win. The other player to get a first-place vote was Josh Allen, though he finished fifth overall after all the votes were counted. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott ended up in second after securing the most second-place votes in a tie with San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey had one fewer third-place vote than Prescott and two fewer fifth-place votes to slip to third. Purdy was fourth, Tyreek Hill finished in sixth, and Mahomes was seventh.
NFL MVP rankings and betting odds
