It might be the equivalent of the small country’s GDP, but most agree that a contract extension is coming for Jefferson. Jefferson is currently scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent in 2025, provided the Vikings choose to pick up his fifth-year option.
Justin Jefferson
The move is entirely justifiable. Jefferson was the NFL’s best wide receiver this season, leading the league in receptions and receiving yards. He seemed destined for 2,000 yards at one point but came up about 200 yards shy.
The Vikings will likely offer Jefferson this extension, but nothing is a guarantee. Even if the chances are so minuscule, creeping suspicion that the Vikings could choose to trade Jefferson to recuperate some draft picks and open up more avenues to build a contender does exist.
The case for Justin Jefferson
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At 23 years old, Justin Jefferson is already one of the league’s best talents.
Frankly, the justification for keeping Jefferson could end there. Normally, there’s no reason to let star players walk, especially those in their prime.
Since he entered the league in 2020, the former LSU Tiger has 4,825 yards and 25 touchdowns. He’s a three-time Pro Bowler and won the NFL Offensive player of the year this season. Not only is Jefferson one of the best wide receivers in football, but he’s also one of the league’s best players.
The Vikings probably don’t make the postseason without Jefferson’s impact, and finding a way to replace his output is challenging. Pair that with Jefferson’s desire to return to the Twin Cities, and there’s a clear avenue to get a contract extension finalized.
The case for a trade
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Buckle up.
Despite Justin Jefferson’s impressive start to the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings have yet to find much on-field success.
Yes, it isn’t Jefferson’s fault, but a mega extension will complicate the cap situation in the future. While projecting Jefferson’s next contract is a tad challenging, it’s safe to assume his deal will reset the wide receiver market.
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill is the league’s highest-paid receiver, accounting for $30 million per season. His four-year extension broke the market last season, even if he signed his extension near the end of the off-season.
For the sake of argument, let’s say Jefferson’s next contract is $96 million over the next three seasons, which is what Vikings Wire’s Tyler Forness projected earlier.
At $33 million a season, Jefferson would account for 14% of the Vikings’ total cap space for 2023. The extension would make Jefferson the 11th highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, even though he plays an entirely different position.
Building a team with so much money put toward a wide receiver isn’t impossible, but it is increasingly difficult. It handcuffs your possibilities at quarterback and other marquee positions like offensive tackle, where teams ideally want to spend the most. In a sense, the Vikings will have to pinch pennies elsewhere.
The trades of Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams shook the league’s core last year, but it also opened up more avenues for the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers to retool their teams.
The two teams had mixed results, but it’s hard to argue with the Chiefs’ success.
Having a superhuman quarterback helps, but the Chiefs saw plenty of success from their unique receiver room, which was among the cheapest in the NFL.
The Chiefs’ success may have proved that wide receiver is quickly becoming a “weakest link” position. Like cornerbacks, teams can get by with average wide receivers if they find ways to maximize their talent.
Replacing Jefferson is impossible, but the Vikings also wouldn’t have to. Maximizing the position can be done as long as you find role-specific players. The problem comes when teams try and replace a star’s production instead of changing their overall approach.
Trading Jefferson would also give the Vikings a plethora of draft picks. The Vikings have four picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, and only two are in the draft’s first two days.
This isn’t always a problem, but having limited cap space and draft picks is a massive handcuff for any team, especially one needing a long-term answer at quarterback.
Trading Jefferson wouldn’t guarantee a franchise quarterback, but it could allow them to trade up for one. If the Vikings wanted to, they could also use those picks in what looks to be a loaded 2024 QB class, which features USC’s Caleb Williams, who just won the Heisman Trophy.
A potential package
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Projecting a trade package for Jefferson can be difficult because there isn’t a recent precedent to go off.
Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and A.J. Brown were all traded last off-season, but none of them were carbon copies of Jefferson. In recent history, Stefon Diggs and Jalen Ramsey were among the marquee non-quarterbacks traded. Here were those trade packages:
- CB Jalen Ramsey: 2020 first-round pick, a 2021 1st round pick, and a 2021 4th round pick.
- WR Stefon Diggs: 2020 1st round pick, a 2020 5th round pick, a 2020 6th round pick, and a 2021 4th round pick.
- WR Davante Adams: 2022 1st round pick and a 2022 2nd round pick.
- WR Tyreek Hill: 2022 1st round pick, a 2022 2nd round pick, a 2022 4th round pick, a 2023 4th round pick, and a 2023 6th round pick.
- WR A.J. Brown: 2022 1st round pick and 2022 3rd round pick.
Trading Jefferson would start with two first-round selections, including one in this year’s draft. After that, the Vikings would likely ask for a day two pick in this year’s draft, either a second-round pick or a third-round pick. The compensation for Jefferson wouldn’t stop there, though. Unlike other players on that list, Jefferson is 23 years old and only getting better. The Vikings could maximize a package by asking for additional 2024 picks, even if they come on day three of the draft.
In total, that would make the package something like the following:
- 2023 1st round pick
- 2023 2nd round pick
- 2023 5th round pick
- 2024 1st round pick
- 2024 3rd round pick
That’s about the only package that could justify trading a talent like Justin Jefferson. Without that, the Vikings would simply be committing malpractice in team building. However, acquiring a package like this could set the Vikings up to maximize and extend their Super Bowl window.
Closing Thoughts
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Should the Minnesota Vikings trade Justin Jefferson? No, probably not. For the most part, trading your best players isn’t a sound team-building strategy.
However, there are merits to consider. As good as Jefferson is, the Vikings have their fair share of roster holes that need to be addressed. Combine that with the lack of draft capital and cap space, and there’s a recipe for a struggling off-season.
A trade for Jefferson could open up team-building avenues for the Vikings, especially at the quarterback position. Fall in love with a quarterback in this year’s draft class? You can trade up for him. Like someone in next year’s class? There’s plenty of capital to take over.
The trade would shake the NFL’s core and likely shouldn’t happen, but there’s reason to consider it.