First, a note of gratitude for the job.
I’m in São Paulo freaking Brazil as I write this the night before the first-ever NFL game in the country. Week 1. Packers–Eagles. And I’m getting paid to be here? It doesn’t get much better than this.
That said, let’s rub that crystal ball and forecast the Packers’ 2024 regular-season record, how far they go in the playoffs (if I have them making it), the team’s unsung hero and more.
Standout rookie: Brayden Narveson, K
You thought I’d pick one of the safeties, Javon Bullard or Evan Williams? Think again. While both have given plenty of reason to be optimistic about what’s to come this season, I’m taking a shot in the dark and saying a guy I’ve never seen kick a ball for the Packers will not only hold onto the job for the entire season but kick above 85 percent on field goals and establish himself as the team’s long-term kicker. Will there be undulations in his rookie season? Of course. But they won’t be as big as Anders Carlson’s last season, and maybe Narveson’s big leg even wins the Packers a game or two late in the fourth quarter.
“Do I have confidence in him? Absolutely, I do,” head coach Matt LaFleur said. “I know Rich (special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia), Byron (assistant special teams coach Byron Storer) and Kyle (special teams quality control coach Kyle Wilber), as well as our scouting department, really liked him coming out of college. He was a guy on a short list of people they’d like to work with. When he became available, obviously you saw what we did. We scooped him up.”
X-factor: Eric Stokes, CB
Knock on wood while reading this. Stokes, who has barely played the last season and a half while dealing with multiple injuries, didn’t miss a practice all camp. He was really good for a rookie in 2021 and then not good at all in the first half of 2022 before suffering a season-ending foot injury against the Lions. He’s received rave reviews this preseason and would give the Packers quite the outside cornerback tandem opposite Jaire Alexander if he can rekindle some of the flame that made him such an enticing young player three years ago. If he does, he could set himself up for a nice payday after the Packers declined to exercise his fifth-year option.
“It’s going to be so good,” Stokes said. “Just don’t understand how happy just to be back out there, knowing everything I’ve been through, knowing there’s so much stuff that I’ve went through these past, pretty much, two years. It’s going to be unbelievable.”
Unsung hero: Daniel Whelan, P
It’s probably not a great sign if your unsung hero is a punter, and the Packers hope he doesn’t see the field much outside holding for Narveson, but the reality is he’ll have his fair share of punts this season even if the Packers’ offense is dynamic. LaFleur was asked on Thursday in Brazil about Whelan and praised the second-year pro.
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“Daniel’s had an outstanding training camp,” LaFleur said. “I think every day, I’m amazed in practice seeing him out there kicking. This guy, he’s dropping bombs out there. It is spectacular to see. Although I tell him all the time, he’s a great kicker, I just hope we only use you as a holder. So hopefully we’re scoring a lot of points and aren’t punting the ball too much, knowing that if we have to punt, he’s got the opportunity for us to flip a field and I think that’s all you can ask for out of a punter.”
Underwhelming performer: The run defense
Shocker, right? During a time of year when vibes around every team are mostly high, it’s tough to pinpoint one guy or one phase and say, “this is going to stink.” But for as much as we’ve heard about the Packers’ new defensive mentality of putting hands in the dirt and creating havoc in the backfield, that approach can lead to just as many explosive plays for the offense as the defense if the Packers aren’t gap sound. I’ve only been in Green Bay for the last five seasons, but that’s long enough to know that when in doubt, pick against Green Bay’s run defense. Maybe I’m wrong, but I have to see it to believe the preseason defensive line hype.
Team non-QB MVP: Josh Jacobs, RB
Gone are the days when the Packers claimed to have a 1A and 1B in the backfield like they did with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. It’s the Jacobs show now, and it starts Friday with MarShawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson banged up and listed as questionable. Jacobs is a ferocious runner with speed to match — he told The Athletic’s Dan Pompei that he was tracked at 21.7 miles per hour in camp, his fastest ever — and it’s clear from what we’ve seen and heard this summer that the Packers plan to throw him the ball, too. Unless Lloyd or Wilson develop into a formidable No. 2 option, Jacobs might do yeoman’s work in the backfield this season if he can stay on the field (he’s only played one full season in five years in the league).
Packers-Eagles score prediction: Eagles 27, Packers 24
Going back to what I wrote above, I’ll believe the Packers can stop Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley on the ground behind Philadelphia’s offensive line once I see it. Don’t put too much stock in Hurts running roughshod on these guys last time they played in 2022 since the Packers have a different scheme and some different personnel/improved players who played in that game, but I still think he and Barkley do enough on the ground to control the clock and help outscore the Packers. I know this is an unrealistic ask, but don’t draw any grand conclusions about coordinator Jeff Hafley’s defense or the Packers as a whole based on one game. It’s a long season. The 10-hour flight back home will hurt much more for the Packers, but as we saw last season, this group can go on a run.
Regular-season record: 11-6
See! Even though I predicted the Packers to lose their first game, I still think they can put together an impressive season and earn the NFC’s top wild-card spot with the Lions winning the division at 12-5. They have too much firepower on offense and still have too much talent on defense. I think the addition of Hafley will be a net positive, too. The kicker position is a massive question, but I think Narveson ends up being an upgrade over Carlson.