The team had just fired up a 13-3 season in 2017 with a backup quarterback and running back, led by a devilishly-good defense that ranked tops in the business via every meaningful statistical metric. The team fell short of a home Super Bowl thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles, so the 2018 offseason was peppered with “we were so close” enthusiasm.
5 Years Ago Today — The Decision That Changed Vikings History
And five years ago today — February 26th, 2018 — news broke that the team would not retain quarterback Case Keenum, as the front office evidently believed his 2017 campaign was quintessential flash-in-the-pan stuff. If they did not think that, then-GM Rick Spielman would’ve re-signed Keenum for cheap. But he did not.
Jan 14, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Case Keenum reacts after defeating the New Orleans Saints at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports.
So, what happened next?
Kirk Cousins Arrives
Dec 24, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) looks to pass against the New York Giants during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports.
The final piece to the puzzle, as theorized by Spielman, was quarterback Kirk Cousins, a free agent from the Washington Commanders.
Cousins joined the Vikings on a humongous guaranteed contract, and the rest is history. He’s led the Vikings for five seasons in varying degrees of success, stabilizing the Vikings QB1 spot for the first time since Daunte Culpepper.
Since joining the club, Cousins ranks fourth in the NFL in touchdown passes — which is precisely what the Vikings wanted when they signed him, stability and production — while taking Minnesota postseason only twice.
Cousins became possible because Spielman said “no” to Keenum.
Keenum Struggles — Mightily
Oct 24, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Case Keenum (8) throws during the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports.
Keenum has been a trainwreck as a starting quarterback since leaving the Vikings. He ranks 40th out of 43 QBs via efficiency [EPA+CPOE (min. 900 plays)]. Out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 900 passing attempts since 2018, Keenum has the NFL’s fourth-worst per passing rating (84.1).
And to top it all off, teams led by Keenum are 9-17 (.346), a win-loss record that ranks fourth-worst in the NFL during the timeframe.
Keenum has traveled to the Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders, Cleveland Browns, and Buffalo Bills since. As of 2020 — just two years removed from his Vikings exit — no team will employ him as a solution at QB1. He’s back to what he was before the Vikings 2017 experiment — a decent QB2.
The Vikings = Vindicated. But for What?
Oct 11, 2020; Seattle, Washington, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer stands with quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) during a fourth-quarter timeout against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports.
Based on Keenum’s performance from 2018 to present, Minnesota emphatically made the right call. He hasn’t played well since 2017. Plain and simple. If you try to twist the narrative otherwise, you’re making stuff up. Put bluntly, Keenum left the Vikings and rapidly devolved into one of the league’s worst starting quarterbacks, which is exactly what Spielman feared in the spring of 2018.
The Vikings were vindicated, but how much did it matter? Without Keenum and with Cousins, Minnesota own the 12th-best win-loss percentage since 2018. They’ve won one playoff game. Thankfully for their sake, the Vikings won the NFC North in 2022 with a first-year head coach and are trending upward with Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage.
The simple measuring stick? The Vikings are 46-35-1 (.567) with Cousins, and other teams are 9-17 (.346) with Keenum. Which do you prefer?